Satellite-based eruption warning/prediction system

§1 Prediction and prediction of signs of volcanic eruptions

1. [Precursor phenomenon of eruption]

(1) In general, volcanic eruptions are accompanied by precursors. The general process of a volcanic eruption is that magma at the foot of a volcano accumulates in a magma chamber 1 to 10 km underground, then rises from there and moves to the surface. This accumulation and movement of magma is the source of eruption precursor phenomena.

(2) Volcanic earthquakes, which are precursors of the first eruption, occur when magma breaks and intrudes into the bedrock. If the epicenter gradually becomes shallower, it is thought that the eruption time is approaching. If there is a place where the epicenter is concentrated, the probability that an eruption can occur there is considerably high. Many volcanic eruptions are seen months to hours before the eruption.

(3) Volcanic tremors, which are precursors of the second eruption, are low-frequency vibrations with a longer vibration period than volcanic earthquakes. In addition, the duration of vibration is long, and it has the characteristics of continuous vibration. Volcanic tremors are thought to be caused by pressure build-up in magma chambers and movement of magma.

(4) The third prelude to eruptions, “changes in topography,” occurs when magma rises to shallow depths as the volcanic edifice suddenly rises, slopes steeply, and cracks in the ground. If there is a significant change in topography, an eruption is likely to occur there.

(5) Other premonitory phenomena of eruption include the following.

(1) Electromagnetic anomalies: Earth currents, geomagnetism, abnormal changes in underground electrical resistance, etc.

(2) Abnormal phenomena of heat: Abnormal rise in groundwater temperature, etc.

(3) Abnormal phenomenon of volcanic gas (volcanic plume): Abnormal changes in the composition and emission amount of volcanic gas, emission temperature, etc.

2. [Current status and issues]

[1] Current status of prediction of volcanic eruption

Current signs and predictions of volcanic eruptions refer to predicting signs such as the timing, place, and style of eruptions in advance to some extent in order to mitigate disasters caused by volcanic eruptions. By accumulating precursor data of past volcanic eruptions, an observation system using various high-precision observation devices such as seismometers, inclinometers, and extensometers was developed. can be predicted to some extent.

[2] Prediction and prediction of volcanic eruption signs: Current status and issues

(1) In order to evacuate and prevent disasters and prevent damage from becoming more serious, it is necessary to ensure that sufficient time is required from the time the occurrence of precursory phenomena and the issuance of an eruption warning to the actual eruption, which serves as the basis for “prediction and prediction of signs of volcanic eruptions.” Securing a grace period for evacuation is an issue (difficulty in issuing warning timing). There is a problem (first problem) that it is more difficult to foresee and forecast volcanic eruption signs and issue early eruption warnings for "insignificant eruptions" such as steam explosions that do not involve eruption precursors or magma ejections.

(2) Issues in prediction and prediction of signs of volcanic eruptions for "significant eruptions" as well, such as the need for greater precision and accuracy with respect to eruption patterns and transitions in eruptive activity, as well as the need for early and optimized warnings (Part 2 problem).

(3) Many cases of volcanic eruptions are accompanied by precursors that have a clear causal relationship with the eruption. However, it is difficult to predict (1) the start of an eruption, (2) how the activity will change after that, (3) whether another large eruption can occur (difficulty in activity transition), and (4) when it will end. There is also a problem that prediction is difficult (difficulty in predicting the end of the crisis). On the other hand, there is a problem (the third problem) that the causal relationship between earthquakes and phenomena that are considered precursors is not clear.

(4) The “declaration of the end” of volcanic eruptions cannot be made with a carefree judgment and overlooked the danger that will cause casualties. often continue. Since an eruption lasts for a few days at the shortest and several years at the longest, in some cases the warning will be continued for several years (difficulty in the warning period). The social and economic impact of the evacuation of residents and traffic restrictions will also last for a long time, and this is a major issue (fourth issue) in tourist areas near volcanoes.

(5) In addition, even if an increase in activity is confirmed due to precursory phenomena of an eruption, and even if an alarm is issued, an eruption does not occur and the activity continues to decline, often resulting in a "failure" (Problem 5). ).

[3] Current status of volcanic eruption monitoring system

Currently, government agencies, universities, and researchers in municipalities, prefectures, and municipalities with volcanoes are using human-wave tactics to install various types of seismometers, inclinometers, and extensometers scattered (fixed-point installations) in volcano warning areas. Eruptions are monitored through instrumental observations using high-precision observation equipment and field observations by humans. In Japan, there are about 30 active volcanoes that are judged to require special attention, and the Japan Meteorological Agency, universities and other research institutes have established observatories and are constantly observing them. These volcano observation areas are covered by observations of upheaval and ground temperature by GPS installed scattered, as well as regular seismic observations, but the density and number of observations made by the observation equipment is completely insufficient, and the accuracy of the observation equipment is insufficient.・There is a problem that accuracy and speed are lacking. In addition, even if an anomaly is detected, there is a problem that there is no other way but to take a slow response such as dispatching an observation team to the installation location of the observation device that detected the anomaly (problem 6).

§2 Satellite-based eruption prediction/prediction system

1. Overview

(1) The femtosecond laser, which is the light source of the satellite-mounted eruption prediction/prediction system, which is a solution for national resilience and a solution for realizing sustainable social infrastructure, is used by the satellite-mounted MEGA earthquake prediction/prediction system (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakeforecasts) as well as the Artificial Evolution Research Institute (AERI) as a solution for neutralizing nuclear and conventional weapons.https://www.aeri-japan.com/) provides anti-fighter, anti-missile, and anti-ICBM next-generation interceptor laser systems (AERI/HEL surface-to-air defense systems/missile defense systemshttps://www.aeri-japan.com/anti-icbm-interceptor-lasersystem) uses a very high power laser (HEL) module.

(2) Artificial Evolution Research Institute (AERI)https://www.aeri-japan.com/)'s ultra-high energy laser (AERI/HEL technology) can extract light with a wide range of wavelengths from soft X-rays, ultraviolet regions, visible light rays, and far infrared regions, and the output can be arbitrarily selected up to over MW (megawatt). . Our firm (https://www.aeri-japan.com/) is also conducting research aimed at practical application in the field of military weapons as an important application of the ultra-high energy laser (AERI/HEL technology).

(3) The above ultra-high energy laser (AERI/HEL technology) as the light source for the satellite-mounted eruption prediction/prediction system has a super power of over 50 MW, a spatial resolution of 10 square μm to 10 square mm, and a variable wavelength ultraviolet light. Any wavelength in the mid-infrared region can be selected, and ultra-short pulses with high resolution and high temporal resolution such as ultra-short pulse widths of CW to femtoseconds (about 10 fs) can be arbitrarily generated at ultra-long distances of about 200 km. .

2. Optional equipment for eruption prediction

(1) The satellite-mounted eruption prediction/prediction system can be equipped with a volcanic tremor detection laser remote sensing module] and a volcanic eruption gas detection infrared (IR) spectroscopic/FT-IR spectroscopic laser remote sensing module].

(2) [Volcanic tremor detection laser remote sensing module]

Artificial Evolution Research Institute (AERI)https://www.aeri-japan.com/) provides satellite-mounted MEGA earthquake prediction and prediction systems (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakeforecasts) is an eruption prediction satellite optoelectronic engineering technology that detects volcanic tremors, and applies quantum interference vector dynamic technology to provide real physical data that has a strong correlation with eruptions. By constantly collecting volcanic tremors as eruption precursor data (pervasive anomaly data) (for example, once an hour), volcanic tremor detection is a laser remote sensing technology that observes ①24 hours a day, ②real time, and ③in situ. A laser remote sensing module is installed as standard.

(3) [Optional equipment: Infrared (IR) spectroscopy/FT-IR spectroscopy laser remote sensing module for detecting volcanic eruption gas]

Satellite-mounted MEGA Earthquake Prediction/Prediction System (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakeforecasts) is an eruption prediction satellite optoelectronic engineering technology that detects volcanic eruption precursor gases, and eruption precursor data (perspective anomaly data), which is one of the precursor phenomena of eruptions, which is real physical data that has a strong correlation with eruptions. In addition to water vapor and carbon dioxide, which are the main components, in addition to sulfur dioxide (sulfurous acid gas), various volcanic eruption precursor gases such as hydrogen sulfide and hydrogen chloride are constantly collected (for example, once an hour). As an option, a satellite optoelectronic engineering-applied volcanic eruption gas detection infrared (IR) spectroscopic/FT-IR spectroscopic laser remote sensing module that realizes (1) 24-hour, (2) real-time, and (3) in situ observation can be installed.

3. Detection, prediction, and prediction of eruption precursors

(1) Satellite-mounted MEGA Earthquake Prediction/Prediction System (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakeforecasts), the volcanic tremor information, which is the eruption precursor data (perspective anomaly data) remotely sensed by the quantum interference vector dynamic technology and the optionally installed volcanic tremor detection laser remote sensing module, and the optionally installed volcano Using the above volcanic eruption precursor gas information, which is eruption precursor data (perspective anomaly data) remotely sensed by the volcanic eruption gas detection infrared (IR) spectroscopy/FT-IR spectroscopy laser remote sensing module, This AI program realizes 24-hour, real-time, in situ prediction and prediction of eruption signs that does not depend on human wave tactics, eruption prediction judgment, expert knowledge and intuition, individual differences, variations, unevenness, etc.

(2) By installing the satellite optoelectronics applied infrared (IR) spectroscopy/FT-IR spectroscopy laser remote sensing module, water vapor (HO), hydrogen fluoride (HF), hydrogen chloride (HCl), sulfur dioxide ( SO2), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrogen (H2), nitrogen (N2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4) and other volcanic eruption gases (1) 24 hours a day, (2) real time, and (3) in situ observation is feasible. By installing (installing) the satellite optoelectronics application infrared (IR) spectroscopy/FT-IR spectroscopy laser remote sensing module as an option, the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor (e.g., column mean concentration) can be estimated.

4. Functions of the eruption warning/prediction system

(1) MEGA Earthquake Prediction/Prediction System (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakefor) In addition to the quantum interference type vector dynamic module used for earthquake prediction, volcanic microtremor laser remote sensing module, prediction and prediction of volcanic eruption signs are possible.

(2) Artificial Evolution Research Institute (AERI) as the main strategic means of national resilience solutionshttps://www.aeri-japan.com/) is researching and developing the "MEGA Earthquake Prediction/Prediction System" (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakeforecasts), in addition to the volcanic tremor detection laser remote sensing module (first optional equipment) that applies quantum interference vector dynamic technology, which is the basic module, volcanic eruption gas detection infrared (IR) spectroscopy / FT-IR By installing a spectroscopic laser remote sensing module (equipped with the second option), the "changes and fluctuations in the ground surface", which are one of the precursory phenomena of volcanic eruptions, can be numerically analyzed using quantum interference. It is a satellite laser application remote sensing (satellite optoelectronic engineering application technology) that monitors the whole of Japan 24 hours a day and performs quantitative analysis.

(3) "MEGA Earthquake Prediction/Prediction System" (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakeforecasts), (a) the volcanic tremor detection laser remote sensing module detects ① changes and changes in the ground surface shape (displacement of the ground surface, fault formation, cracks, upheaval, depression, as well as distortion near the ground surface, etc.). 24-hour, real-time, in-situ digitization and visualization of changes and fluctuations in ground surface vibrations (earth rumble, ground rumbling).

(b) Detection of volcanic eruption gas by infrared (IR) spectroscopy/FT-IR spectroscopy laser remote sensing module (3) Changes and fluctuations in the type and concentration of erupting gas, (c) Detected by satellite optoelectronic infrared sensors (4) Quantitatively analyze changes and fluctuations in the ground surface temperature as precursors of volcanic eruptions. By default, 24-hour, real-time, in situ observation of vertical and horizontal variations of the ground surface on a scale of 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year.

(4) In addition to uplift/subsidence and horizontal displacement, abnormal vibrations (earthquake precursor tremors) and ejected gas are simultaneously measured in real time to predict earthquake precursors. In other words, the volcanic micro-laser remote sensing module detects precursor phenomena of eruptions such as vibration and acceleration in addition to time displacement of ground surface changes and fluctuations (unevenness), 24 hours a day, 2) in real time, and 3) in situ. Digitize by 10,000 points.

Specifically, (1) displacement of the ground surface, fault formation, cracks, upheaval, subsidence, generation and accumulation of distortion near the ground surface, etc. (1) changes and fluctuations in the shape of the ground surface, and (2) ground surface vibration (earth rumbling) The volcanic micro-laser remote sensing module measures changes and fluctuations in the volcanic eruption with an accuracy of several millimeters. Volcanic eruption gas detection with an accuracy of several ppm Infrared (IR) spectroscopy / FT-IR spectroscopy Laser remote Sensing modules (3) (4) Precursor phenomena of volcanic eruptions with an accuracy of 0.1°C for changes and fluctuations in ground surface temperature. It is possible to digitize and visualize the volcanic area in real time at a pitch of several mm to several meters in situ for 24 hours.

(5) As a result, in addition to predicting earthquakes, dynamic real-time observations using artificial satellite laser application remote sensing (satellite optoelectronic engineering application technology) will be possible, instead of conventional satellite photography and observation point measurement, which are human seas and static observations.・Prediction of signs of volcanic eruption by in situ observation. The economic effect of this system will not be less than 100 trillion yen. It can bring about a revolutionary evolution in the prediction of earthquake signs and eruption signs that rely on conventional human knowledge.

5. Effects of this system

(1) Effect 1: By implementing a quantum interference vector dynamic module and a volcanic tremor detection laser remote sensing module, it is possible to "predict and predict signs of volcanic eruptions" for evacuation and disaster prevention actions and to prevent damage from becoming more serious. It is possible to secure a sufficient evacuation grace period from the issuance of an eruption warning to the actual eruption (solution of the issue of warning issuance timing). In addition, by installing infrared (IR) spectroscopy and FT-IR spectroscopy laser remote sensing modules, it is possible to predict and predict volcanic eruption precursors for "unmarked eruptions" such as steam explosions that do not involve eruptions or magma eruptions. and issuance of early eruption warning becomes easier.

(2) Effect 2: Prediction and forecasting of signs of volcanic eruptions for "significant eruptions" will also be possible to further improve the accuracy and accuracy of eruption patterns and changes in eruptive activity, and to advance and optimize warnings. .

(3) Effect 3: From satellites, together with GPS/GLONASS information, volcanic eruption precursor data is digitized and digitized in real time in situ at a pitch of several millimeters to several meters for volcanic areas scattered throughout the country, 24 hours a day. Since eruption predictions and forecasts are performed using visualization, it is possible to predict (1) not only the start of an eruption, but also (2) how activity will change after that, and (3) whether another large eruption is likely to occur. gender resolution). And (4) it becomes easy to predict when it will end (solving the difficulty of predicting the end). AI can quantify the causal relationship between eruptions and phenomena that are considered precursors and objectively judge them.

(4) Effect 4: The “declaration of the end” of volcanic eruptions cannot be overlooked and cause casualties with an easy decision. It will be possible to continue long-term warnings and warnings for eruptions, which often continue to be issued for a period of time (solution of the difficulty of the warning period). It will be possible to minimize the social and economic impact of tourist spots near volcanoes, evacuation of residents, and traffic restrictions.

(5) Effect 5: It is possible to solve the "missing" problem of the alarm. In other words, it is possible to solve the problem that even if an increase in activity is confirmed by a precursory phenomenon of an eruption and an alarm or the like is issued, an eruption does not occur and the activity continues to decline.

§3 Summary

(1) Artificial Evolution Research Institute (AERI)https://www.aeri-japan.com/) satellite-mounted MEGA earthquake prediction/prediction system (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakeforecasts) is a revolutionary advance in the volcanic eruption monitoring system that enables 24-hour, real-time, in-situ digitization and visualization of volcanic eruption-like gas emission detection points for quick and accurate response. be realized.

(2) Conventionally, government agencies, universities, and researchers in municipalities of prefectures and municipalities that have volcanoes have used man-wave tactics to install seismometers and inclinometers (fixed points) in volcano warning areas. Eruptions are monitored through instrumental observations using various high-precision observation devices called extensometers, and through field observations by humans. In Japan, there are about 30 active volcanoes that are judged to require special attention, and research institutes such as the Japan Meteorological Agency and universities have established observatories and are constantly observing them. These volcano observation areas are covered by observations of upheaval and ground temperature by GPS installed scattered, as well as regular seismic observations, but the density and number of observations made by the observation equipment is completely insufficient, and the accuracy of the observation equipment is insufficient.・There was a problem of lack of accuracy and speed. This satellite-mounted MEGA earthquake prediction/prediction system (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakeforecasts) is an innovative technology that can solve this problem.

(3) Above, Artificial Evolution Research Institute (AERI)https://www.aeri-japan.com/) provided by "MEGA Earthquake Prediction and Prediction System" (https://www.aeri-japan.com/megaearthquakeforecasts) is currently used by government agencies, universities, and researchers to install seismometers, inclinometers, and extensometers scattered (fixed-point installations) in volcano warning areas. Monitoring of eruptions is carried out through instrumental observations using various high-precision observation devices, as well as on-site observations by humans. In Japan, there are about 30 active volcanoes that are judged to require special attention, and the Japan Meteorological Agency, universities and other research institutes have established observatories and are constantly observing them. These volcano observation areas are covered by observations of upheaval and ground temperature by GPS installed scattered, as well as regular seismic observations, but the density and number of observations made by the observation equipment is completely insufficient, and the accuracy of the observation equipment is insufficient.・There is a problem that accuracy and speed are lacking. Also, even if an anomaly is detected, there is no other way but to take a slow response, such as dispatching an observation team to the installation location of the observation equipment that detected the anomaly. become able to.

that's all

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

Remarks: Infrared spectroscopy

1. 【Overview】

1. Infrared spectroscopy (abbreviated as IR) When a molecule is irradiated with light in the infrared region of 0.8 to 1000 μm, if the vibration period of the infrared rays and the vibration period of the atoms match, individual atoms and atomic groups It absorbs energy according to the period, and the vibration changes from the ground state to the excited state. This absorption appears as absorption in the infrared spectrum. A method of obtaining knowledge about molecular structures by analyzing absorption spectra, since atoms have unique vibrations according to their molecular structures. The most commonly used is the mid-infrared region (2.5-25 μm), where absorption spectra are vibrational spectra caused by vibrations involving changes in the dipole moment among other molecular vibrations. It is used to know the molecular structure and state of the object.

2. When a substance is irradiated with infrared rays, the molecules that make up the substance absorb the energy of the light, and the state of quantized vibration or rotation changes. Therefore, the infrared rays transmitted through (or reflected by) a certain substance are weaker than the irradiated infrared rays by the energy used for the state transition of the molecular motion. By detecting this difference, the energy absorbed by the molecule, in other words, the energy required to excite the vibration and rotation of the target molecule can be obtained.

3. The energy required to excite the vibration and rotation of a molecule varies depending on the chemical structure of the molecule. Therefore, the infrared absorption spectrum obtained by plotting the wave number of the irradiated infrared rays on the horizontal axis and the absorbance on the vertical axis shows a shape unique to the molecule. This makes it possible to know what kind of structure a target substance has, and is often used to determine the structure of organic compounds in particular. In the spectrum, the portion with a wavenumber of 1500 cm-1 or more is called the diagnostic region, and the other portion is called the fingerprint region. The former results from vibrational excitation of single bonds, while the former binds double bonds, triple bonds and hydrogen atoms. Also, even for the same molecule, the infrared spectrum changes slightly depending on the temperature and surrounding conditions (whether it is moving freely, whether it is adsorbed on a surface, etc.). From this, it is possible to know the surface structure of the substance.

2. [Method]

Infrared spectroscopy includes (1) thermal infrared spectroscopy (TIR), (2) near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), and (3) FTIR (Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy). There are methods such as

1. Thermal infrared spectroscopy (TIR)

TIR is a type of infrared spectroscopy that is widely used to determine the composition of matter. The constituent materials can be determined by measuring the thermal infrared radiation emitted from the entire object or surface, analyzing its electromagnetic spectrum, and comparing it to the spectra of known materials.

2. near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS)

NIRS is a spectroscopic method in the near-infrared region. Equipped with a near-infrared diffuse reflectance spectrum analysis function that irradiates the measurement target with near-infrared rays and calculates the components from changes in absorbance. As a feature, absorption of near-infrared rays is extremely small compared to mid-infrared rays and far-infrared rays, so non-destructive and non-contact measurement can be performed without preparing sections.

Difficulties for practical use include the observation of overtones and triple overtones with near-infrared spectroscopy, and the difficulty of direct association with components due to the combination of various factors in light absorption. there were. However, due to the low cost of computers and the development of multivariate analysis (chemometrics), it has become possible to apply it to quantitative analysis.

3. FTIR (Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy)

FTIR is IR (infrared spectroscopy) in which the FTIR principle is applied (signals are recorded in the time domain and then Fourier transformed into the frequency domain). FTIR does not irradiate the sample with infrared rays of varying wavelengths, but rather irradiates the sample with continuous light and Fourier transforms the interference pattern to acquire an absorption spectrum corresponding to the molecular structure, and to identify the atomic groups ( method of obtaining information on The ability to simultaneously measure incident light over the entire wavenumber range of continuous light enables high-sensitivity measurements in a short period of time.

FTIR has transmission reflection method and measurement method. Permeation methods include the KBr tablet method, the Nujol method, the KBr plate method, the thin film method, the liquid film method, the solution method, and the gas measurement method. Reflection methods include the ATR method, the diffuse reflection method, the regular reflection method (regular reflection light), the regular reflection method (transmission reflection light), the high sensitivity reflection (RAS) method, and the like.