人工進化研究所（AERI）

Sep 22, 20237 min read

How Far Did the Clean Energy Shift GX Progress in the 2010s?

Professor Kamuro's near-future science predictions:

How Far Did the Clean Energy Shift GX Progress in the 2010s?

Quantum Physicist and Brain Scientist

Visiting Professor of Quantum Physics,

California Institute of Technology

IEEE-USA Fellow

American Physical Society-USA Fellow

PhD. & Dr. Kazuto Kamuro

AERI：Artificial Evolution Research Institute

Pasadena, California

HP: https://www.aeri-japan.com/

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A. Introduction:

a. The Clean Energy Shift GX (CES-GX) initiative, introduced during the 2010s, has driven significant advancements in the field of sustainable energy. This paper aims to assess the extent of progress achieved over this decade-long period, providing a comprehensive overview of key developments and milestones. Through a systematic analysis of various indicators and initiatives, we seek to illuminate the tangible outcomes and remaining challenges within the CES-GX framework.

b. The global transition towards cleaner and more sustainable energy systems has become a critical imperative in the 21st century. In response to this pressing need, the Clean Energy Shift GX (CES-GX) initiative was launched in the early 2010s, with the goal of promoting innovation, adoption, and implementation of sustainable energy solutions. This paper investigates the status of CES-GX as of the end of the 2010s, examining significant advancements and identifying areas in need of further attention.

B. Abstract:

a. Remarkable Advancements in Clean Energy Technologies Over the Past Decade, Yet Insufficient Contributions on a Global Scale. The progress in clean energy technology over the past decade has been nothing short of astounding. However, in the face of a growing population, expanding economies, and a rising demand for energy, the increase in global electricity production pales in comparison, offering only marginal contributions.

b. According to most key indicators, the past decade has been illustrious for clean energy. The costs of large-scale wind and solar power plants have plummeted by approximately 70% and 90%, respectively. Simultaneously, renewable energy power plants worldwide are generating four times more electricity than they were a decade ago.

c. Likewise, electric vehicles (EVs) showed little promise in the early 2010s. However, by 2019, with extended driving ranges, declining prices, and diverse models introduced by various manufacturers, the automotive industry was selling around 1.8 million EVs annually.

d. Nevertheless, the rapid growth of renewable energy and electric vehicles has not brought about significant changes in the vast global energy system or substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. As illustrated in the following graph, cleaner technologies have largely met the surging energy demand but have not deeply penetrated the existing infrastructure dependent on fossil fuels.

e. This presents a critical challenge. To swiftly reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the face of escalating climate threats, a comprehensive overhaul of power plants, factories, mass transit vehicles, and other infrastructure reliant on fossil fuels must occur within the next few decades.

C. Methodology:

To assess the progress of CES-GX, we conducted an extensive review of scientific literature, policy documents, and industry reports published throughout the 2010s. We also analyzed data related to energy consumption patterns, rates of renewable energy adoption, and technological advancements. This multidimensional approach enables us to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the initiative's impact.

D. Key Achievements:

Several noteworthy achievements have marked the progress of CES-GX during the past decade. These include:

a. Significant Expansion of Renewable Energy Capacity: The 2010s witnessed a remarkable increase in renewable energy capacity on a global scale. Solar and wind power, in particular, experienced exponential growth, contributing significantly to the diversification of energy sources.

b. Technological Advancements: Breakthroughs in energy storage technologies, grid integration, and efficiency improvements have played a pivotal role in enhancing the feasibility of renewable energy sources.

c. Policy and Regulatory Frameworks: Many countries implemented robust policies and regulations to support the transition to clean energy. These policies created an enabling environment for investment and innovation in the sector.

E. Challenges and Future Directions:

Despite substantial progress, challenges remain on the path to achieving a fully clean energy system. These challenges include addressing intermittency issues associated with renewables, upgrading infrastructure, and fostering international collaboration for energy transition efforts.

Looking ahead, the 2020s will demand continued dedication to research, innovation, and the implementation of comprehensive energy strategies to further advance the CES-GX initiative. Collaborative efforts among governments, industry stakeholders, and the scientific community will be crucial in overcoming the remaining obstacles and expediting the transition toward a sustainable and clean energy future.

F. Conclusion:

The Clean Energy Shift GX initiative has made significant strides in advancing sustainable energy solutions during the 2010s. While notable achievements have been realized, there are still challenges to overcome. The upcoming decade presents an opportunity for continued progress, with a focus on technological innovation, policy support, and international cooperation to propel the world closer to a clean energy future.

G. Renewable Energy:

a. According to the 'BP Statistical Review of World Energy,' compiled by BP, a multinational energy company based in the United Kingdom, global electricity generation primarily from renewable sources such as wind and solar power increased from approximately 550 terawatt-hours in 2008 to around 2,500 terawatt-hours in 2018.

However, how does this growth appear in the context of the overall power generation sector? The following graph illustrates this. Renewable energy is represented by the thin green segment at the top. While it is on the rise, it appears relatively small compared to other sources of electricity."

b. According to the 'World Energy Statistical Overview' compiled by BP, a multinational energy corporation based in the United Kingdom, global electricity generation from renewable sources, primarily wind and solar power, increased from approximately 550 terawatt-hours in 2008 to approximately 2,500 terawatt-hours in 2018.

But how does this growth manifest within the broader electricity generation sector? The accompanying graph provides insight. Renewable energy is represented by the slender green segment at the top. While it is experiencing an upward trajectory, it appears dwarfed by other sources of electrical power.

c. One of the challenges lies in the increase of overall electricity generation alongside population growth, economic expansion, and rising energy demand. To meet this demand, the world has witnessed the construction of numerous solar and wind power plants. Simultaneously, countries have continued to build power plants that rely on coal and natural gas.

d. Another issue stems from the expansion of the electrical power systems. As these systems grow, the proportion of other carbon-free electricity sources has remained relatively stagnant (in the case of hydropower) or declined (in the case of nuclear power). The share of carbon-free power sources has transitioned from 32% to 35% over the past decade when viewed holistically, reflecting only a marginal increase.

H. Electric Vehicles:

A similar overarching trend applies to electric vehicles (EVs), which hold an even smaller share in the global market. Compared to the early part of this decade when EVs struggled to gain traction, the sales of electric vehicles have surged in major markets worldwide. However, as highlighted by data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), this substantial growth in EV sales had little impact on the total revenue of the global automotive industry, which surpassed 80 million units last year.

Many analysts anticipate a sharp increase in sales when battery-powered passenger cars and trucks become as affordable as gasoline vehicles. However, there is substantial divergence among experts regarding when the approximately one-third cost component of electric vehicles, which is the battery, will become sufficiently economical.

Regardless, a fundamental transformation of all modes of transportation on the road is likely to take several more decades. It's essential to recognize that passenger cars and trucks are just a small fraction of the broader transportation system that necessitates comprehensive reevaluation.

I. Future Growth:

a. Towards the end of the 21st century, it is likely that the world's electricity system will need to expand approximately fivefold to accommodate significant population growth, rising living standards, and the widespread 'electrification' of much of the economy. This expansion will encompass increased electricity usage for vehicle propulsion, heating in buildings, and powering stoves, among other applications. Of course, the imperative will be that all of this expansion occurs in a carbon-free manner.

b. According to a recent analysis by the environmental research organization, the Breakthrough Institute, to rapidly construct a system capable of limiting global warming to below 2°C, it is imperative to increase the annual growth rate of clean energy adoption fivefold by the year 2040. The following graph illustrates this growth trajectory.

c. This analysis is based on the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concerning climate change. It estimates that economic growth, population patterns, and other trends will follow historical patterns.

d. According to analysts at the Breakthrough Institute, maintaining the average annual growth rate of clean energy adoption over the past five years would necessitate approximately 360 years to construct a system of such magnitude. Even with the swiftest growth rate observed in the past five years, the outlook indicates that it would take nearly 260 years to achieve this objective.

END

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Quantum Brain Chipset & Bio Processor (BioVLSI)

Prof. PhD. Dr. Kamuro

Quantum Physicist and Brain Scientist involved in Caltech & AERI Associate Professor and Brain Scientist in Artificial Evolution Research Institute（ AERI: https://www.aeri-japan.com/ ）

IEEE-USA Fellow

American Physical Society Fellow

PhD. & Dr. Kazuto Kamuro

https://www.aeri-japan.com

email: info@aeri-japan.com

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HP： https://www.aeri-japan.com/

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